The Criminally Underrated Thunder

 

When the season began, people said that the Thunder would be lost without Harden. Westbrook would be terrible, Durant would be frustrated, and the team would be awful without Harden, the glue that kept the team together. I’m on record as saying that the Thunder would be fine without him.

It’s not as if Harden didn’t try to prove that he’d be missed. Harden, a player that people said was a top 20 player in the league who’s now considered to be a top 10 player has had an amazing season on the Rockets. He’s been given the green light to lead the team and has proven that he has more than enough talent to be considered in the second tier of superstars (Read: Not the the Kevin Durant, LeBron James class, but the one just under that one). He’s been a great offensive player, even if he’s the sloppiest defensive player of that group.

People seemed to forget that Harden was the third best player on the Thunder. More importantly, he was the third option on a team that had Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant on it. Both of those players were in the top 5 of the league in usage rate (percentage of offensive possessions that end with the ball in their hands as either a field goal attempt or a turnover). That only left Harden with so much opportunity to be successful. My thoughts were that the trade would help Harden (because he would get a max contract and the opportunity to lead a team) and it wouldn’t hurt the Thunder, especially if anything they got back for Harden ended up being good. 

Last year, with Harden, the Thunder won 71.2% of their games. As of right now, they have slumped and only won 73% of their games. Even if they lose the remainder of their games, they will have won 71.9%. Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant have both put up MVP caliber seasons even though they share the ball with each other. Proof:

“Westbrook’s (close to) final stats: 23.5 points, 5.4 rebounds, 7.5 assists, 43.9 percent shooting, 32.2 percent from 3, 24.0 PER.

Derrick Rose’s (2011) MVP stats: 25.0 points, 4.1 rebounds, 7.7 assists, 44.5 percent shooting, 33.2 percent from 3, 23.6 PER.”  - Daily Thunder

**I’ve also said that Derrick Rose’s MVP season will be remembered in the same vein as the Barkley and Malone MVP seasons, but that’s another discussion.

Russell Westbrook put up those numbers and he is still only the second best player on the team. I don’t think I need to show you Kevin Durant’s godly numbers to prove that he’s had an MVP caliber season, but just in case, he’s put up 50-40-90 in fg%, 3ptfg%, and ft%. He’s also going to come in second on the scoring list with over 28 points a game. He’s also improved every facet of his game.

The other reason why the thunder hasn’t collapsed has been the Harden role. Earlier I mentioned that he didn’t get a lot of time with the ball in his hands, but if you look around the league, 6th men generally don’t get the starters minutes. Even if you replace a guy like James Harden with a considerably lesser talent like Kevin Martin you get results like this.

Harden’s 2011-12 season: 31.4 minutes, 16.8 points, 4.1 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 49.1 percent shooting, 39.0 percent from 3, 21.1 PER

Martin’s 2012-13 season: 27.7 14.0 points, 2.3 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 45.0 percent shooting, 42.6 from 3, 16.1 PER – Daily Thunder

In slightly less minutes per game, Martin has given slightly less production without the need to pay him anything resembling a max contract. Also, Ibaka has formed himself into a moderately useful offensive player.

Now, the laziest of the lazy pundits will say that the the Thunder can’t win without Harden. First, if by win, they mean win the NBA Championship, they didn’t win with Harden. Second, while they aren’t a better team without Harden, Harden’s role has been filled capably by the other players already on the team as well as Kevin Martin. 

**Now, I wouldn’t be me if I didn’t make some concessions here. The Thunder are extremely top heavy. Extremely top heavy. While they don’t miss Harden while Westbrook and Kevin Durant play 80+ games (Neither has missed a start all season), they absolutely will miss him if either player gets hurt. Also, from a long term perspective, it wouldn’t be surprising if the the Thunder were just as good without Harden, but the Western Conference was more difficult because they have to get past Harden to get to the top every year. The Thunder are much better than the Rockets right now, but if the Rockets were somehow able to get a decent Power Forward (or for the love of Naismith a point guard who could guard anyone), all of a sudden they are a major contender in the West, making the Thunder “worse” by proxy.