The NBA draft lottery was designed in 1985. With the former system, similar to the NFL’s draft system where draft order is in reverse order of Win-Loss record, teams were accused of intentionally losing games at the end of the regular season. On and on and on and now we have the system we have now. Ping pong balls pop up and depending on the order, non-playoff teams are allowed to pick.
The system is flawed, but it appears that there is a major reason why it needs to be different. In the NFL draft, there are many opportunities to improve your team. Each pick isn’t as important. In the 1984 NFL draft, 20 players went to the Pro Bowl. 336 players were added. In the fabled 1984 NBA draft there were only 7 players who played in at least one All-star game.
On top of that in the NBA only 12 players are on each team and 5 on the court at a given time. A great player can change the fortune of a franchise for 10 years. Teams shouldn’t be allowed to just throw games to have the best chance of getting the best players. In the NFL, it is more difficult to throw games because there are so few games. By the time it is apparent that a team is going to be in the draft, there are only a few games. Each position isn’t as important because you can still find a great player at the 8th pick more easily than you can find one in the NBA draft. Only about 60 players are drafted a year, so each pick is worth more.
Yesterday, the Cavaliers fortunes were changed by their acquisition of the 1st and 4th pick. They were lucky in the lottery, as they started off the night with the 2nd and 9th best chance of getting a top pick. This will allow them, in theory, to get 2 great picks.
Unfortunately having the number one pick doesn’t always pan out. The only years since the beginning of the lottery where the 1st pick was the best player in the draft were 1987 (David Robinson with all due respect to Scottie Pippen), 1992 (Shaquille O’Neal), 1993 (Chris Webber), 1997 (Tim Duncan), 1999 (Elton Brand, weak draft), 2003 (LeBron James, due respect to Wade and Bosh) and 2004 (Dwight Howard). It may also be safe to say that 2008’s pick Derrick Rose will safely be the best pick of the draft. That would be 8 drafts out of 26. 10 if Blake Griffin and John Wall become the best players of their draft class.
The chances of completely blowing the first pick are pretty high (See Brown, Kwame). In fact, in ’89, ’95, ’98, and ’01 the number one overall draft pick never even made an All-Star team. Bogut, Bargnani, and Oden have are also in the same position, and while unlikely to do so, they could still theoretically make an all-star team. So since the lottery there’s about a 15% chance of complete failure.
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