Trends... vs Events

P.S. I started writing, thinking about this post before Game 2. Half of it is is probably unimportant. But I felt it was important to talk about the changes in thought as they happened. Post Game 2 thoughts in italics


After Game 1 of both conference finals, people got ridiculous. No problem with amateur views (Especially since that's what most of my blogging is). No problem with wrong views, or even those I disagree with. Watching one event and making conclusions about a career, or even a 7 game series is probably not a great idea. 1 game isn't enough to make definitive statements about a series.

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1. The Bulls are going to shut down Wade and Lebron every night - Event


Lebron and Wade had a bad night for game 1. It's not indicative of the series that they had a bad night on the same night. Everyone is entitled to play badly every so often. Even Jordan had bad games. They'll be alright

After Game 2, business as usual for the Miami Heat, Lebron and Wade both dropped normal numbers, nothing to see here. I wonder if I'm going to hear Derrick Rose doesn't deserve MVP now that he had one bad night. I'm not too concerned, He's not going to walk all over the heat like he did the other two teams he's played against, but that too was an abberation and not a trend

2. The Heat can't rebound as well as the Bulls - Trend
However, the Heat may not be able to rebound consistently against the Bulls. The Heat don't have a pitbull on the inside. Every team needs one guy who really wants to get rebounds, especially on the offensive glass. Noah's going to play to potential every night.

Aparrently Haslem is filling out the pitbull role. He's the closest thing the Heat have to a pitbull. He was supposed to be that guy for them throughout the season. I don't think he's as good as Noah, not by a long shot, but I think that the toughness he brings will at least reduce the HUGE disparity in rebounding.

3. Taj Gibson is going to destroy the Heat
Taj Gibson is a monster. Honestly I don't think that its an event, it might be trend. He had a lot of off the court issues in the middle of the year and it led to a lackluster showing, but unlike the guy who starts over him, and gets paid more to do so, Gibson's gotten a lot better, and Coach Thibideau is rewarding him with minutes. Gibson is actually a pretty good player.

Didn't see Gibson on youtube this morning, but I still feel that way

4. If Chris Bosh drops 30, Lebron and Wade aren't shooting enough. - Neither

I feel about Bosh the way I feel about Westbrook. They generally shoulldn't score more than the best player on the team. However, if they do, it is usually as a result of the other team playing badly, not the cause of it. When Lebron and Wade combine for 24 points, someone has to score. While I wouldn't want Bosh to be the best player on my team (see Raptors 2003-2010), I'm quite happy if he puts up 30 when he's called to do so. Bosh isn't exactly trigger happy, so unlike Westbrook I don't foresee him having a game where he shoots in a way that hurts the team.

Bosh went back to normal in Game 2.

5. The Bulls Dominated the Heat
In rebounding may be a trend. As far as the entire game neither. The teams are too good defensively to dominate each other.

Yes, it works the opposite way too. The Heat didn't dominate the Bulls in Game 2. Although, the Bulls look markedly worse when Rose doesn't play well.


Might wait till after Game 2 to write about the OKC-DAL series. Although to be honest, if Dirk scores 48 and only misses 3 shots again, it won't be a long post, just one where I discuss who would be a better match up in the finals.