NBA: Where “Second Round’s on Me” Happens

 

The First Round happened. I got 6 out if 8 series right. and picked 4 winners in the right amount of games.

First Round Recap

OKC vs. HOU

I deserve this series, I talked all year about how the Thunder would be okay without Harden. I discussed at length about the success story that is the Thunder's bench, which went from atrocious to almost watchable. The Rockets, as a franchise, have had a couple of my favorite players of all time, including Hakeem Olajuwon who is the center that I would want to start a franchise around. This year's model is a lottery team without James Harden and despite his improvement, they'll be a first round out with him. The Rockets also have Chandler Parsons who gives KD fits occasionally, and Carlos Delfino who's an enjoyable threat on the wings. On the other hand, Kevin Durant isn't having it. He pummeled Harden in the first two matchups of the season.

OKC in 5

I didn’t see Westbrook getting hurt in game 2. It really showed how inept the Rockets are. The Rockets were better without Jeremy Lin.

SAS vs LAL

Which Lakers team is it? Is it the dysfunctional team that relies on a center with no discernible offensive game and is an easy target for fouls in the clutch? Perhaps it's the new team that centers around it's big men and lets the guards spread out for 3 point shooting. On the other side of the court, the Spurs are a deeper team, with better guard play (when healthy), and a better coach. And they still have that Tim Duncan guy. He's still pretty good. I also believe the atrocious refereeing that helped the Lakers get here will stop.  (Yes, 50-16 foul shot differential against Golden State, I haven't forgotten about you).

SAS in 6

The Spurs swept. I thought the Lakers would play well and show pride in an inevitable loss. Dwight’s stock has fallen in the last year more than any other player. Also, I may have simply underestimated how great the Spurs are.

DEN vs. GSW

I don't know. On one hand, the Warriors are filled with players who have never seen the playoffs before. Ever. Denver is injured in many key spots. Golden State probably has the best player in the series in Stephen Curry. I just can't say no to Denver. The coaching matchup here, with all due respect to what Mark Jackson has done this year would seem to be an ant versus a sledgehammer.

DEN in 7

Golden State dominated in 6. Most of my miscalculation was that Mark Jackson coached the series better than I thought he would. The other part was that Stephen Curry is better than I thought he would be.

LAC @ MEM

I'm glad that this matchup is happening again, mostly because there's so much bad blood between the two squads. I love the moves the teams have made to get better. I love how Rudy Gay has been replaced by a past his prime Tayshaun Prince. I love the @JCrossover show in L.A. I love that this matchup features the best point guard in the league and the best center in the league. But, my philosophy is that defense beats offense, and the Grizzlies have defense in spades.

Grizzlies in 6

See above. The Grizzlies looked really good.

MIA vs. MIL

Miami in 4. Miami is a better team in every way than Milwaukee. How's that for analysis.

I was right. How’s that for analysis?

NYK vs BOS

The Knicks are a better team. The Celtics have emotion and experience on their side. Emotion and experience can only take you so far, though. The last time the Knicks won a playoff series they beat a Miami Heat team that featured a young Bruce Bowen and Anthony Carter as a rookie. The last next year, they lost in the first round to the Raptors. That Raptors team featured Ty Corbin and Mark Jackson, who are now coaches. The team also had Dell Curry, whose son is now the best player on an NBA team. It's been a long time.

NYK in 6.

If J.R. Smith hadn’t gotten ejected and suspended for game 4, I’m certain that the Knicks would have swept. If J.R. Smith hadn’t gotten ejected and suspended at a bad time, he wouldn’t be J.R. Smith.

IND vs ATL

It's not fair to these teams that everyone has spent the last week saying that no one cares about this series. The Hawks have a solid inside presence in Horford and Josh Smith. Korver's been fun to watch this year. Indiana just got crushed by the Danny Granger injury. I really like the Pacers team, though. The Pacers almost beat the Heat last year and they've improved quite a bit. They still won't go far in this playoff run.

IND in 6.

The Pacers were better. The Pacers wouldn’t have dealt with the nonsense.

BKN vs. CHI

It must be nice to leave New Jersey. All of a sudden Brook Lopez is playing defense. Deron Williams looks like the old DWill again. I feel really bad killing the Bulls off in the first round. The Bulls have achieved greatly without Derrick Rose and despite all of the distractions that have been caused by Rose's injury and recovery.  Well that achievement stops here.

BKN in 6

I’m a bit saddened that Brooklyn lost. Not because of any ties to the team, but because Brooklyn played terribly. Sure they won 3 games, but the Bulls are missing their 2 of their 3 best players and the other one (Noah) is hobbled. Nate Robinson was the reason why they won this series and I feel dirty just writing that.

Second Round Preview

MIA vs.  CHI

Season series: 3-1

When healthy, the Bulls are the worst matchup for the Heat. The Bulls are not healthy right now. Also, they just finished their last series. Miami in 5 is only because of how much I have faith in Joakim Noah and Coach Thibideau. Without Deng, who’s been hospitalized, I don’t know how we can have faith in the Bulls to win 2 games in this series.

Miami in 5

NYK vs IND

Season series 2-2

NYK vs IND brings me back to my childhood. I grew up in NY and therefore hating almost everything about the Pacers. I had a begrudging respect for Reggie Miller, because of how good he was. The 2013 version of this series doesn’t have the same vitriol that the 90’s series had. I’m looking forward to everything about this series. I really want to watch Paul George, who I’ve wanted to watch this year, and had few opportunities to check out. If my philosophy is defense over offense, then the winner seems obvious here

IND in 6

OKC vs MEM

Season series 2-1 grizzlies

This series, 2 years ago, is the one that cemented the Thunder as a contender and the Grizzlies as second tier. The current version of this series features a Grizzlies team that would be a problem for the Thunder even with Westbrook. Now, without the player who set a Thunder record for playoff scoring, they have to beat the Grizzlies who are a better team now. The Grizzlies have top-2 defensive players at point guard, shooting guard, and center. Also, Brooks had some shaky moments in coaching, last series. I don’t trust him to maximize the talent on the Thunder roster right now.

MEM in 6

GSW vs. SAS

Season series: 2-2

Don’t get cute. Don’t get cute. Don’t get cute. The Spurs are better than the Warriors. The Spurs can win in a number of ways. The Warriors are hobbled and not particularly battle tested.

SAS in 6

NBA: Where Coming Out Happens

And so it begins...

Jason Collins is the first and currently the only openly gay player in the NBA and in all male professional sports. No one should care, and yet its a big deal. Jason isn't a star, but he is widely respected as a defensive center. Collins came out today in an Sports Illustrated article. He says that until recently, no one knew including his twin brother, Jarron Collins, also an NBA Center who played from 2001-2011.

What does this mean professionally for Jason Collins? Nothing, I assume. He's currently a free agent and at 34 he's likely to be close to retirement. He played 6 games last year. He may not ever work in the NBA again, not because of homophobia, but because, he's a benchwarmer at best at this point of his career. What does it mean personally for Mr. Collins? He'll be able to live freely and openly, something basic to the human experience. Most importantly, he was able to make the decision, and he wasn't outed by someone else.

What does this mean for the league in general? The seal is broken. I don;t think that the response to Jason's coming out will be a flood of people coming out. I do think that it means that the next player can come out freely, especially if nothing negative results from this professionally for Mr. Collins. Collins isn't the only gay player in sports, just the only one who's out.

NBA: Where Meniscus Tears Happen

 

“Now, I wouldn’t be me if I didn’t make some concessions here. The Thunder are extremely top heavy. Extremely top heavy. While they don’t miss Harden while Westbrook and Kevin Durant play 80+ games (Neither has missed a start all season), they absolutely will miss him if either player gets hurt.” – 4/15/13

 

So Russell Westbrook is out with a meniscus tear. For the first time in the Oklahoma City Thunder’s existence, the Russell Westbrook will not play. December 3, 2008 was Russell Westbrook’s first start, and no one has started at point guard other than him since. Westbrook has improved immensely this season. His assists and rebounds have gone up. His turnovers have gone slightly down. His position as the floor general on the team is finally unopposed. Westbrook has been described often as an ironman and he’s played at a high level for every game for the last 4 years. His energy is unmatched on the team. Where Durant is calm cool and collected, generally speaking, Westbrook is the spark plug of the Thunder. His injury wont affect his consecutive games streak (like most records, only the regular season counts), but it’s going to be bizarre not to see him starting at point guard.

I usually try to give a broad perspective when talking about sports, but Zach Lowe discussed the impact that this injury has on the league in a much better way (Also, Lowe is an amazing writer).

“My personal fear about the NBA this season, and about these NBA playoffs, was that they constituted an overlong non-drama with a predictable ending. The Heat are 35-1 in the last 36 games in which LeBron James has played. That is very nearly half an NBA season, with one loss. To review: NBA rules dictate that one team must defeat another team four times in seven games in order to eliminate said team and advance to the next round. Four losses, seven games. Miami is 35-1 in the last 36 games featuring the world’s best player. The math … it is not good.

A healthy Thunder team represented the best chance at a competitive series against a fully healthy Heat team”

If Westbrook is out, then the Thunder cannot beat the Heat. If Westbrook is out, the Thunder stop being the clear favorite in the West. The Nuggets and Spurs suddenly have a better chance. The Clippers or Grizzlies suddenly have a better chance of getting to the Western Conference. The Heat having a straightforward path to their ring is terrible, especially because it’s a waste of the huge improvement of the team. 

Russell Westbrook is the second best player on the team, but he’s a top 10 player in the league, and a huge gap for the Thunder team to fill. For the Thunder, Reggie Jackson might have the opportunity to really prove a lot of people wrong. I’ve described Jackson as “the terrible player that everyone thinks Westbrook is” but over the course of the season my heart has softened, and I’ve really enjoyed watching him play in spurts. (Of course, the other option is Derek Fisher and no one wants that.) Kevin Martin and Serge Ibaka just became a lot more important to the Thunder’s success.

I’m rooting for Kevin Durant to have an all time performance in this playoff run. I want him to put up a 55 point plus game in this series against the Rockets. The scoring load has just been dropped on Kevin Durant in a way that Westbrook’s presence has prevented. I think that he’s capable of really dropping a ton of points and I’m predicting that Game 4 is going to be a huge KD performance. It might have to be. Just as a weakened Thunder is a waste of the Heat’s improvement, if the Thunder lose out because Westbrook misses the playoffs, then that’s a huge waste of Kevin Durant’s huge improvements this year. KD has improved in every area of his game and to have the effort to go unrewarded would be depressing.

It’s currently unknown how long Westbrook will be out for. Ron Artest came back within 2 weeks from his tear. Other players have taken many months to come back. I was crushed when I first read about the injury, and I’m still down about it. One of my classmates hugged when when I walked into school, knowing that I was crushed about the situation. I’m also surprised how many people that complained about Westbrook all year are now certain that the Thunder are done without him. On one final note, Westbrook might still be back before Derrick Rose.

NBA: Where "The First Round's On Me" Happens

Western Conference

OKC vs. HOU

I deserve this series, I talked all year about how the Thunder would be okay without Harden. I discussed at length about the success story that is the Thunder's bench, which went from atrocious to almost watchable. The Rockets, as a franchise, have had a couple of my favorite players of all time, including Hakeem Olajuwon who is the center that I would want to start a franchise around. This year's model is a lottery team without James Harden and despite his improvement, they'll be a first round out with him. The Rockets also have Chandler Parsons who gives KD fits occasionally, and Carlos Delfino who's an enjoyable threat on the wings. On the other hand, Kevin Durant isn't having it. He pummeled Harden in the first two matchups of the season. 

OKC in 5

SAS vs LAL 

Which Lakers team is it? Is it the dysfunctional team that relies on a center with no discernible offensive game and is an easy target for fouls in the clutch? Perhaps it's the new team that centers around it's big men and lets the guards spread out for 3 point shooting. On the other side of the court, the Spurs are a deeper team, with better guard play (when healthy), and a better coach. And they still have that Tim Duncan guy. He's still pretty good. I also believe the atrocious refereeing that helped the Lakers get here will stop.  (Yes, 50-16 foul shot differential against Golden State, I haven't forgotten about you).

SAS in 6

DEN vs. GSW

I don't know. On one hand, the Warriors are filled with players who have never seen the playoffs before. Ever. Denver is injured in many key spots. Golden State probably has the best player in the series in Stephen Curry. I just can't say no to Denver. The coaching matchup here, with all due respect to what Mark Jackson has done this year would seem to be an ant versus a sledgehammer. 

DEN in 7

LAC @ MEM

I'm glad that this matchup is happening again, mostly because there's so much bad blood between the two squads. I love the moves the teams have made to get better. I love how Rudy Gay has been replaced by a past his prime Tayshaun Prince. I love the @JCrossover show in L.A. I love that this matchup features the best point guard in the league and the best center in the league. But, my philosophy is that defense beats offense, and the Grizzlies have defense in spades. 

Grizzlies in 6

Eastern Conference

MIA vs. MIL

Miami in 4. Miami is a better team in every way than Milwaukee. How's that for analysis. 

NYK vs BOS

The Knicks are a better team. The Celtics have emotion and experience on their side. Emotion and experience can only take you so far, though. The last time the Knicks won a playoff series they beat a Miami Heat team that featured a young Bruce Bowen and Anthony Carter as a rookie. The last next year, they lost in the first round to the Raptors. That Raptors team featured Ty Corbin and Mark Jackson, who are now coaches. The team also had Dell Curry, whose son is now the best player on an NBA team. It's been a long time. 

NYK in 6.

IND vs ATL

It's not fair to these teams that everyone has spent the last week saying that no one cares about this series. The Hawks have a solid inside presence in Horford and Josh Smith. Korver's been fun to watch this year. Indiana just got crushed by the Danny Granger injury. I really like the Pacers team, though. The Pacers almost beat the Heat last year and they've improved quite a bit. They still won't go far in this playoff run.

IND in 6. 

BKN vs. CHI

It must be nice to leave New Jersey. All of a sudden Brook Lopez is playing defense. Deron Williams looks like the old DWill again. I feel really bad killing the Bulls off in the first round. The Bulls have achieved greatly without Derrick Rose and despite all of the distractions that have been caused by Rose's injury and recovery.  Well that achievement stops here. 

BKN in 6 

  

NBA: Where Playoff Scenarios Happen

 

For the first time all season, all 30 teams will play on the same night. There will be 12 games at 8:00EST/6:00MST and 3 games at 10:30EST/8:30MST. Let’s get it on.

On the other hand there are 3 playoff races left in the league. 16 teams will be headed to the playoffs and the other 14 will be hoping to win the draft lottery. For the 9 teams that are still waiting for their seeding, the games tomorrow are huge,  7 games with big implications

 

Eastern Conference

Chicago vs. Atlanta

 

ATL @ NYK LP 6PM

WAS @ CHI LP 6PM

 

If Chicago wins they're the 5th seed

If Chicago loses and Atlanta wins Atlanta gets the 6th seed

 

 

Western Conference

 

Denver vs. Clippers vs. Memphis 3rd-5th seed

 

PHX @ DEN LP 6PM
UTA @ MEM ESPN 6PM

 

If Memphis loses then Memphis gets the 5th seed

If Denver wins then Denver gets the 3rd seed

If Memphis loses and Denver wins then the Clippers get the 4th seed

 

LAC @ SAC LP 8:30PM

 

If Denver loses and Memphis Wins:

If the Clippers win then Clippers 3, Denver 4 and Memphis 5

If the Clippers lose, then Denver 3, Memphis 4 and Clippers 5

 

 

Golden State vs. Lakers vs. Jazz vs. Rockets 6th seed - 9th seed/elimination

 

UTA @ MEM 6PM

 

If the Jazz Lose, then they are eliminated

 

HOU @ LAL ESPN 8:30PM

GSW @ POR LP 8:30PM

 

Lakers Win:

If the Lakers Win then the seeding is Warriors 6, Lakers, 7 and Rockets 8

 

Lakers Lose/Jazz Win:

If Warriors win then Warriors 6, Rockets 7 and Jazz 8

If Warriors lose then Rockets 6, Warriors, 7 and Jazz 8

 

Lakers Lose/Jazz Lose

If Warriors win then Warriors 6, Rockets 7 and Lakers 8

If Warriors lose then Rockets 6, Warriors, 7 and Lakers 8

NBA: Where the unthinkable happens.

On a day like yesterday, it seems callous to talk about sports after the bombings in Boston. People's lives were changed for the worse. On the other hand, I don't have anything meaningful to say about the tragedy, just the sport related effects. What do you say about an event that leaves you speechless? A runner complained about receiving a DNF (Did not Finish) for the race. Certainly the DNF isn't meaningful in the grand scheme of things. It's not callous to talk about sport when it's much easier to hold on to the relatively meaningless results of a race. In fact, that's what what everyone was gathered there for. For information about the tragedy, go to the accounts who experienced it firsthand. Go to the newspaper writers who, on the day that Pulitzer Prizes were handed out, wrote beautifully and meaningfully. For me, I'm going to take solace in the world of sport. While the games are indeed just games, it's something that distracts us from the real tragedies in life.

IND @ BOS

After hearing the initial stories about the bombings my brain went into these directions. First, who did it? Second, are the people I know in Boston okay? Third, are there any games scheduled in Boston?* Sport was solace for me after 9/11, but sports across the nation were cancelled due to fear of future attacks.  When the Yankees and Mets did take the field again, it was comforting.

The NBA made the correct decision yesterday in cancelling today's game. First, from a purely basketball perspective, this was an easy game on the schedule to cancel. The Pacers have already locked up their 3rd seed and so this game was from a playoff perspective, absolutely meaningless. The Celtics have also clinched the 7th seed in the conference. This is a game that would have been a chore to watch as both coaches would likely have benched star players. Second, considering the days events, an event in an arena would have been an absolute nightmare. Security would have been insane. The other fans would have been nervous and tense about the environment. Most importantly extra police would have likely been required, and that would have distracted from the other efforts of the Boston Police Department at the time.

*The Ottawa Senators were scheduled to play the Boston Bruins yesterday, and that was cancelled as well.


TOR @ ATL

I swear this post gets lighthearted from here.

This is the most important game of the day. Atlanta is currently in 5th place. A win here keeps them a game ahead of Chicago. If they keep pace and stay in the 5th seed they play against Joe Johnson, a former star player who was recently sent to the Brooklyn Nets. That could make for an interesting series from a marketing standpoint, because of that dynamic, but not from an actual basketball standpoint (where the Brooklyn Nets are a better team than the Hawks and would likely win in 6 or less)

Toronto will not make the playoffs, they don't even have the benefit of a draft pick. Toronto traded their pick to Houston for Kyle Lowry. Houston traded the pick and other pieces to Oklahoma City for James Harden. So now, Oklahoma City has the rights to Toronto's draft pick. The draft pick is protected, however. If the Toronto Raptors made the playoffs this year, or have a top 3 pick, then they keep the pick. The Raptors have been mathematically eliminated, so now as the 10th seed the only chance the Raptors have at keeping the pick is if they win the draft lottery in June. However, at the 10th seed, the chances that they win the lottery (or get the second or third picks) is about 4%. The Thunder front office is hoping that they keep pace and stay below Philadelphia so that they have a poor chance of retaining the pick, but still have the highest possible pick.

However, (to complicate matters) next years draft is projected to be a historically great draft, and the Raptors are still likely to be an underperforming team, so it would be even better for the Thunder (in theory), if the Raptors won the draft lottery this year, and stayed a lottery team but didn't have a top 2 pick, giving the Thunder a better player.

Confused yet? Let's move on.


POR @ LAC

The Clippers need to win this game to take care of home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. If they win this game and the next one, they clinch home court against the 5th seed. The Clippers could be ranked as high as third if they win both games and Denver loses tommorow.  However, if they lose this game, then a Memphis win tommorow or a Clipper loss tommorow gives the Grizzlies home court.

The Blazers dont have any reason to want this win.

The Criminally Underrated Thunder

 

When the season began, people said that the Thunder would be lost without Harden. Westbrook would be terrible, Durant would be frustrated, and the team would be awful without Harden, the glue that kept the team together. I’m on record as saying that the Thunder would be fine without him.

It’s not as if Harden didn’t try to prove that he’d be missed. Harden, a player that people said was a top 20 player in the league who’s now considered to be a top 10 player has had an amazing season on the Rockets. He’s been given the green light to lead the team and has proven that he has more than enough talent to be considered in the second tier of superstars (Read: Not the the Kevin Durant, LeBron James class, but the one just under that one). He’s been a great offensive player, even if he’s the sloppiest defensive player of that group.

People seemed to forget that Harden was the third best player on the Thunder. More importantly, he was the third option on a team that had Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant on it. Both of those players were in the top 5 of the league in usage rate (percentage of offensive possessions that end with the ball in their hands as either a field goal attempt or a turnover). That only left Harden with so much opportunity to be successful. My thoughts were that the trade would help Harden (because he would get a max contract and the opportunity to lead a team) and it wouldn’t hurt the Thunder, especially if anything they got back for Harden ended up being good. 

Last year, with Harden, the Thunder won 71.2% of their games. As of right now, they have slumped and only won 73% of their games. Even if they lose the remainder of their games, they will have won 71.9%. Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant have both put up MVP caliber seasons even though they share the ball with each other. Proof:

“Westbrook’s (close to) final stats: 23.5 points, 5.4 rebounds, 7.5 assists, 43.9 percent shooting, 32.2 percent from 3, 24.0 PER.

Derrick Rose’s (2011) MVP stats: 25.0 points, 4.1 rebounds, 7.7 assists, 44.5 percent shooting, 33.2 percent from 3, 23.6 PER.”  - Daily Thunder

**I’ve also said that Derrick Rose’s MVP season will be remembered in the same vein as the Barkley and Malone MVP seasons, but that’s another discussion.

Russell Westbrook put up those numbers and he is still only the second best player on the team. I don’t think I need to show you Kevin Durant’s godly numbers to prove that he’s had an MVP caliber season, but just in case, he’s put up 50-40-90 in fg%, 3ptfg%, and ft%. He’s also going to come in second on the scoring list with over 28 points a game. He’s also improved every facet of his game.

The other reason why the thunder hasn’t collapsed has been the Harden role. Earlier I mentioned that he didn’t get a lot of time with the ball in his hands, but if you look around the league, 6th men generally don’t get the starters minutes. Even if you replace a guy like James Harden with a considerably lesser talent like Kevin Martin you get results like this.

Harden’s 2011-12 season: 31.4 minutes, 16.8 points, 4.1 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 49.1 percent shooting, 39.0 percent from 3, 21.1 PER

Martin’s 2012-13 season: 27.7 14.0 points, 2.3 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 45.0 percent shooting, 42.6 from 3, 16.1 PER – Daily Thunder

In slightly less minutes per game, Martin has given slightly less production without the need to pay him anything resembling a max contract. Also, Ibaka has formed himself into a moderately useful offensive player.

Now, the laziest of the lazy pundits will say that the the Thunder can’t win without Harden. First, if by win, they mean win the NBA Championship, they didn’t win with Harden. Second, while they aren’t a better team without Harden, Harden’s role has been filled capably by the other players already on the team as well as Kevin Martin. 

**Now, I wouldn’t be me if I didn’t make some concessions here. The Thunder are extremely top heavy. Extremely top heavy. While they don’t miss Harden while Westbrook and Kevin Durant play 80+ games (Neither has missed a start all season), they absolutely will miss him if either player gets hurt. Also, from a long term perspective, it wouldn’t be surprising if the the Thunder were just as good without Harden, but the Western Conference was more difficult because they have to get past Harden to get to the top every year. The Thunder are much better than the Rockets right now, but if the Rockets were somehow able to get a decent Power Forward (or for the love of Naismith a point guard who could guard anyone), all of a sudden they are a major contender in the West, making the Thunder “worse” by proxy.