TL;DR: I’m often inspired to write posts based on things my friends say. This week’s post is brought to you by the following question. “Is Houston Rockets shooting guard James Harden in my top 10?”
James Harden is an amazing offensive weapon and a net negative defensive player. He’s the second best free throw producer in the league while also being a horrid 33% 3 point shooter. He’s the best at his position even though the position is quite shallow (Only 2 other players are even vaguely top 20 candidates in Joe Johnson and Dwyane Wade). James Harden for me is a fascinating case for what top ten means.
People often say “X is a top ten player” without really thinking about it. They say top-ten when they actually mean “He’s really good”. People rarely have a actual top 10 list ready. Before I upset some fanbases, I decided I needed to set some parameters for what this top ten list represents. First, when I say top 10 player, I’m talking about the skill set in the present season. This eliminates any of the 2014 draft class (Sorry, Embiid) and has-beens (Hi, Kobe Bryant and the wrath of Lakers Nation). On a related note anyone who is out for the season or projected as such is also eliminated. (My deepest regrets, Derrick Rose, especially because it would simplify the bottom of my top ten list and to a lesser extent, Brook Lopez.)
Second, there’s a problem of describing people with disparate skill sets. How do I compare what Roy Hibbert contributes with what Harden does? Largely, it’s a problem of bias. Even NBA advanced stats don’t do a good job of evaluating individual defensive efforts. I generally prefer centers over shooting guards. However, Harden isn’t your average shooting guard. He’s a competent passer and a huge part of the Rockets offense. For similar reasons, specialists are also out. (Korver is not invited to the party)
Third, despite the value in real life, I’m not including contracts as a part of the decision. (Here there is no difference between Paul Millsap’s team friendly contract and Joe Johnson’s albatross). Ability to create wins also factors in. (Sorry, Kyrie it’s not you it’s me. Even though there’s a chance it could be you. I can’t tell yet. Especially since you don’t have the advance stats this year that Cousins and Love have)
With that being said we have the official top 10 via tiers. (I’m using tiers because it’s easier that way)
Tier One - The best of the best – Kevin Durant. Lebron James. Paul George.
Obviously. These are 3 of the most versatile players in the league. They are the best in the game. They show up on both sides of the ball. I’d happily start a real life team around any of them. It’s easy. All of these players are better than Harden. No question. George’s inconsistency puts him at last. Durant is the scoring champion and just put up a 52 point game. That’s why he’s first. It’s total recency bias. Also, he’s been the most fun to watch over the last month or so.
Tier Two - The often injured but elite point Guards – Chris Paul, Stephen Curry
The point guards worth talking about. They are the team leaders. Elite scorers. I could have easily put Chris Paul or Stephen Curry in the top tier but the injury concerns with both players really bother me.
Tier Three – LaMarcus Aldridge, Anthony Davis, Marc Gasol, Roy Hibbert
I’m an absolute snob for players in the paint. Having defense here matters. In a league where smallball lineups are becoming more common, having a versatile paint protector continues to be a valuable piece. Size is a valuable commodity in the league. Aldridge is the best player on one of the best teams in the league. Hibbert and Davis are the most versatile of the Defensive Player of the Year candidates. Gasol won DPOY last year. If you want to put Harden over any of these players I’d understand. You’d be wrong, but I’d understand. Note: This creates nine spots.
Tier Four - The number 10 spot candidates
Joe Johnson, Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Smith, Blake Griffin, James Harden, Dwight Howard, Kevin Love, Carmelo Anthony, Russell Westbrook, Damien Lillard, DeMarcus Cousins, Tony Parker, Tim Duncan
This isn’t even a tier so much as it’s a list of people who might reasonably be in someone’s top ten (by alphabetical order of team). There are good arguments for any of these players to be in the last spot. Here is where things get complicated for me. Out of the frontcourt players, I probably choose Kevin Love, despite my Irving-like concerns about the success of his teams. Amongst the backcourt, I probably choose his college teammate Westbrook or the established Tony Parker. Overall, I would normally choose Westbrook to round out my top ten because of all that he provides when healthy, but his knee injury and resulting surgery really concerns me. Kevin Love on the other hand completes the top ten in a way that I really enjoy. He’s a stretch four who can also do great things in the paint. He’s also an elite rebounder. But what Harden provides for a team is pretty much unmatched. Sure, some of his free throws come from being a no-good dirty flopper, but he’s also an exceptional scorer and more versatile than your average shooter. Once he realizes that “guard” is also a part of his job description he could end up much higher. But even if it’s only as a result of injuries to other players, Harden is a top-ten player (for the moment).
My quest was to create a functional top 10 list. I realize that these lists are controversial by their very nature, and I’m sure people will disagree with the list. That’s fine. This is MY list. If you think that Parker is clearly better than the rest, that’s fine, I invite the discussion. If you look at Cousin’s top-ten PER and can’t keep him out, I get it. If you’re a Suns fan and think that Bledsoe belongs in my top ten, that’s between you and God, but sure, bring it up. If you think that Harden got robbed, sure.
And as always, thanks for reading.
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