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Tuesday, May 20, 2014

NBA: Where Playing the Lottery Happens

So we know that the NBA draft lottery DEFINITELY ISN'T FIXED. But in honor of my favorite conspiracy, the ping pong balls will bounce (even though there aren’t technically ping-pong balls) and a team will get the first pick and the right to choose Andrew Wiggins (or Jabari Parker, Or Joel Embiid, Or Dante’s Inferno).

Explanation: The best players come into the league through the draft. There is a lottery every year to decide which team gets the coveted high picks. The lottery decides the top 3 picks. Every non-playoff team gets a chance to win the lottery. All teams that don't win will get their order decidedby win loss record. Next to each team is their chance of winning the number one pick. 

Let’s run through the options from front to back

Phoenix Suns (0.5%) / Minnesota Timberwolves(0.6%)

Conspiracy: Sure, the NBA is trying to bolster their young, up and coming teams. Both squads narrowly missed the playoffs and the NBA is trying to promote them. 

Realistically: Look, If the Suns or Wolves win the lottery, we SHOULD be skeptical. There's only a tiny chance that they could win legitimately. On the other hand, it would be the best thing for the ping pong balls to reward teams that didn't tank last year. If Minnesota could get a sf/sg in the draft it would make it possible that Love would stay in Minnesota.

New York Knicks(0.7%)

Conspiracy:  Of course, New York won.  The league loves big markets and the Knicks continue to get benefits they don’t deserve. They’re trying to shove the Knicks down our throats

Realistically: Except that the Knicks won’t keep this pick. If New York wins a lottery spot, the pick goes to Denver (Melo trade). If they lose the pick it goes to Orlando via Denver (Igoudala trade)

Denver Nuggets(0.8%)

Conspiracy: I see what happened. A little wink and a nod from the league after trading Melo to a big market.

Realistically: I can’t even come up with a good conspiracy theory for this squad. Maybe that makes it possible that the Nuggets would actually win this. I've had my fingers crossed all year, especially since I've decided to stay in Colorado following the bar exam. 

New Orleans (1.1%)

Conspiracy: AGAIN. We’re all onto New Orleans. If New Orleans wins the lottery, they keep their pick. The NBA is always trying to suck up to their new owners. This happened already with Anthony Davis 

Realistically: The NBA isn’t trying to suck up to the Pelicans, New Orleans is a small market in a powerhouse conference. If New Orleans loses, Philly gets their pick.

Cleveland (1.7%)

Conspiracy: SOMEHOW, SOMEWAY, the NBA’s favorite owner keeps getting unearned number one picks. They won the Lebron draft, the Irving draft after Lebron left and last year’s number one pick.
Realistically: Do you really think that the league wants Cleveland to win again?

Detroit (3.5%)

Conspiracy: SEE, Fab 5 documentary, Rebuild Detroit commercials, they get the best free agent coach available, and now they get the number one pick: SHEEPLE

Realistically, the bigger conspiracy comes if a team behind the pistons wins a lottery spot. If any combination of Cleveland, New Orleans, Denver, New York, Minnesota or Phoenix wins the draft lottery spots, Detroit loses their pick to Charlotte (1-8 protected)

Sacramento (3.6%)

Conspiracy: New Orleans Redux. New Owner, Number one pick
Realistically: Another high pick for the Kings is upcoming. They haven't sniffed the playoffs in years. 

LA Lakers (6.3%) / Boston (8.8%)

Conspiracy: @#$$##^%&*&#$@%$^&*(&^%$#@

Realistically: The internet might explode if either of the leagues two most storied franchises wins the NBA lottery. Both teams were legitimately awful this year and it isn't insane to think that one or both sqauds could get a lottery pick. 

Utah (11.9%)

Conspiracy: MORMONS, MORMONS EVERYWHERE. Clearly, the Church of Latter Day Saints is paying the NBA off to get Jabari Parker to Utah.
Realistically: If Utah got the number one pick, Jabari Parker to Salt Lake City would be a lock. The Jazz need a small forward.  All he does is offense, and that's what the Jazz need. It would be divine interven.. never mind. 


Orlando (15.6%)

Conspiracy: The NBA isn’t creative. The Magic already drafted Penny and Shaq in back to back years in the early 90’s. Now they get Oladipo and a number one pick. (Edit: I forgot all about the Howard draft) 

Realistically: The Magic were pretty awful last year and have a lot of fun players on the squad. It would be nice to see them  get one more piece. 

Philadelphia (19.9%) /Milwaukee (25.0%)

Conspiracy: New Owner theory applies to both

Realistically, These teams have a 44.9% chance of getting the number one pick. Of course they ought to win the lottery. Milwaukee would be the more just result considering that they didn't tank in obvious and ugly ways. They also didn't tie the record for most losses in a row. It's not easy to be as organically bad as the Bucks were.   

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