“I'm one of the best … that done it, six digits and running
Y'all … don't want it
I got the Godfather flow
The Don Juan DeMarco” - Jay-Z (Can’t Knock The Hustle)
It will be ok
That’s what I’m telling myself. I’m a sucker for good luck stories. When the Dallas Cowboys picked DeMarco Murray in the third round of the 2011 draft, I didn’t think much of him. Then, in week 7 of his rookie season, he had an opportunity to shine. The starting running back, Felix Jones, was injured, and Murray was the backup RB, behind Tashard Choice. DeMarco exploded for 253 yards. This set the Cowboys franchise record for yards in a game. It was also the most yards allowed by the Rams. It’s the ninth best rushing day ever. Needless to say, he was the starting running back the next week.
DeMarco’s career as a Cowboy seemed to be star crossed. He missed six games in the 2012 season with a sprained foot. He sprained an MCL in 2013. There was no doubt that DeMarco was special, when he was healthy. However, at the beginning of the 2014 season, it seemed unlikely that he’d be able to get through an entire season with an NFL workload.
2014 was unbelievable. When the season started, I drafted him early in my 10 team fantasy league. I figured that I might regret it, but I’m a Cowboys fan, and I’m a sucker for their skill position players. Despite the sprained MCL he had the previous season, he made it to the Pro Bowl. I figured that 10 games of DeMarco would be more than enough for me to win my league.
In 2012 DeMarco had 663 yards in 10 games. In 2013, DeMarco had 1121 yards in 14 games. DeMarco Murray had more rushing yards in 2014 than in 2012 and 2013 combined. The season he had was special. He had 100 plus yards in his first 8 games, an NFL record. He led the league in Rushing Yards with a monstrous 1845 yards, the 17th best performance in NFL History. He tied for the lead in Rushing Touchdowns. He led the league in rushing yards per game and had almost 20 more than the second place guy. He led the team to the playoffs.
Last year was also a contract year for DeMarco, meaning that DeMarco would be a free agent. Should the cowboys pay DeMarco or not? The question depends on whether you believe past performance to be prologue. The Cowboys offensive line was ranked number one overall by Pro Football Focus and second in run blocking. The main players on the line are also young, and we can safely assume that they are going to improve. DeMarco has shown evidence that he’s amazing when healthy. He had few bad performances in a Cowboys uniform that weren’t related to health and none of those performances happened last year.
The other side of the argument for DeMarco Murray is the excessive number of carries he had last year. DeMarco had 392 regular season rushing attempts, 80 more than the next player. He played all 16 regular season games and 2 playoff games. Running back in the NFL is a brutal position, and the mortals who play it tend to have short careers. Running at full speed at a 250 pound linebacker who is also running at full speed towards you is not good for the body. Repeating this process more than 400 times in the course of 5 months isn’t great. In just the regular season, he had 449 touches, plays where DeMarco Murray ran the ball or caught a pass).
People who are into football statistics (especially fantasy players) will discuss the so-called “Curse of 370.” The short version of this theory is that running backs who carry the ball 370 times or more have a drop in production the next year. There’s a 2011 article about this topic. The results are both damning and intuitive. The more you run the ball, the more likely that you will have a lackluster follow-up year.
DeMarco will not be a Cowboy in 2015. According to reports, he signed a 5 year, 42 million dollar contract with the Philadelphia Eagles, a division rival. Remember earlier, when I said that the Cowboys had the second best run blocking rating in the NFL last year? Well, according to Pro Football Focus, Philadelphia has the best when their linemen are healthy. The Cowboys will have to hope that DeMarco Murray isn’t the exception to the Curse of 370. Otherwise, they could be regretting this decision 2 games a year for the next few years.
As for me, I’ll root for his success during the other 14 games. DeMarco has been a special talent, and I hope that he continues to excel. He helped to win a fantasy title last season, and I want him to continue to be a special player for as long as possible. Except when he’s playing against the Cowboys, of course.
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